By Godwin Agaba
The abrupt removal of Uganda’s military spy chief, Maj. Gen. Abel Kandiho, from the post yesterday, has left many questions lingering. President Yoweri Museveni announced that Kandiho had been replaced by Maj. Gen. James Birungi who has was once a commanding officer of the elite Special Forces Command or SFC.
Gen. Kandiho has been sent to South Sudan in a move perceived by some as katebe (a term for “out of deployment”). Gen. Kandiho has been much loathed by Kigali which lists him as its enemy number one.
Kigali placed his dismissal from the post as a key demand on Uganda if they were to reopen the common border between Uganda and Rwanda it closed three years ago.
Coming shortly after the visit of First Son, Gen.Muhoozi Kainerugaba to Kigali where he met President Paul Kagame, a section of the public has been made to believe that Gen Kandiho’s removal was tagged to Rwanda’s demands.
Yet, the same man was last year slapped with sanctions by the US State Department.
Still, Museveni as Commander-In-Chief of the Ugandan army retains discretionary powers to deploy his command as he pleases.
So, which is which? A USA based regional security analyst doesnt believe Gen. Kandiho was transferred due to Kigali pressure. “I am a strong cynic to the suggestion that Gen.Kandiho fell to the pressure exerted by Kigali. I doubt that his re-assignment has to do with Kagame’s “demands”.
I am almost sure the former CMI chief knew he would be moved to another position long before Muhoozi thought of traveling to Rwanda.
Every officer has this at the back of his mind that any time may call from a different station.
Having been at the helm of CMI for 5 years, a transfer was due. “In my view, the sanctions may have been the overriding factor for his transfer. Did anyone expect Museveni to retain a US-sanctioned General, as Director of Military Intelligence, yet UPDF works directly with the Pentagon? One needs to know US law around this issue,” the analyst ponders.
Asked if UPDF is working with the Pentagon directly, especially its anti-ADF war in DRC, the security analyst said that ,” the Biden Administration designated ADF a terrorist organization. One needs to know the US legal and public policy framework around that, a couple of weeks later, USA deployed Special forces to North Kivu”.
Days later, UPDF deployed its fire power in North Kivu.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) approved of the UPDF deployment! One wouldn’t reasonably believe that the US allowed UPDF to deploy in DRC without a US-Uganda deal? The analyst adds . I do not think Uganda would manage the DRC war without assistance from USA. Uganda would go bankrupt. Ordinary minds think this was Article 51 (of the UN Charter) war. Wrong! Clearly, the US Government invited UPDF to DRC. And for that matter, the Pentagon needs a person like Gen. Kandiho for continuity of the war but politicians have sanctioned him.
What does the Pentagon do? Keep him around Museveni as a special envoy in control of another important area for US regional interest. South Sudan is the gate way for the US to control both DRC and Central African Republic (CAR). Kandiho’s new assignment is significant if the US intends to “pacify” CAR alongside DRC. The analyst clarifies . But did the US link and deal around Afande Kandiho involve Kigali? Optics matter, but why did the reshuffle have to come after the first son’s visit, unless Museveni wanted to give Kagame something to save face with? A UK based lawyer asks.
“What becomes of the operations the former CMI chief mastered during his tenure and for which he is much celebrated in Uganda? Will his successor, Birungi, operate differently or does he risk the same fate?” Many say Kandiho and Birungi are cut from the same piece of cloth . Removing heads of CMI has been happening to restore Uganda / Rwanda relations .
Gen. James Mugira was transferred from CMI in 2012, but it didn’t yield much.
And if at all Kampala was forced to let go of Kandiho and send him far away from where he may easily ruffle feathers in Kigali, does it mean that Rwanda was all along right about him-and his alleged cushioning of elements hostile to the Kagame regime? And why did it take so long to act? What new factors applied so quickly after Muhoozi’s visit? Do we expect Rwanda also to transfer some of its security heads or the first son walked away with only and envelope of “commands” to his father from “Uncle”?
Poor brains, lazy minds, that is our regional landmark in geopolitics or defense and security dynamics. In this article, zero thought on a clear scope or school of thoughts. Hurling hearsay sources can’t be called opinion or journalistic work. Yet, we do have time. The author would have simply corrected himself on a vitriol letter he penned before Muhoozi visit to Kigali. Because it was a mere stupid rant. Now you add an empty paper, unsubstantiated, inconsistent, like mwanainchi conversations in a cheap akabari downtown Kabalagala. Online media outlets should help us advance and upgrade our views and thoughts, and the password for that is research and fact-finding effort. Otherwise, freedom of speech for lazy minds will turn into exposing one’s mediocrity. Please next time use time for a better outcome.