KAMPALA: The Ugandan Army’s Land Forces Commander, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has just arrived in Kigali for talks with the Rwandan President Gen Paul Kagame in what looks to be an official assignment by Ugandan President Gen Yoweri Museveni to fix the Rwanda-Uganda problem once and for all.
Gen Muhoozi, who is also Gen Museveni’s son and Advisor on Special Operations, arrived at Kigali International Airport this morning aboard a Uganda Airlines chattered Bombardier plane CR J900.
Gen Muhoozi was received by the Commandant of Rwanda’s Republican Guard, Brig Gen Willy Rwagasana, the Spokesperson of the Rwanda Defence Forces and Kainerugaba’s schoolmate, Brig Gen Ronnie Rwivanga and Ugandan Embassy officials.
After a brief chat in the VIP lounge and at the Ugandan Embassy, Gen Muhoozi was chauffeured to Kacyiru to meet with Gen Kagame.
The visit comes at a time when Ugandan ground and air forces launched blazing attacks on the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) camps in Eastern DRC late November, where uniforms and identity cards suspected to belong to the Rwandan army were recovered, a move that left Kigali thinking deeply about its own operations in the vast country.
It also comes at a time when the frosty relations between the two countries have not eased and the common border between them is still closed.
Further, it comes immediately after one week of a move that sent shock waves in the Great Lakes Region, in which Gen Muhoozi warned in a tweet that those fighting Rwandan President Paul Kagame, to be careful.
He tweeted:
“Afande Paul Kagame. Those who fight him are fighting my family. They should all be careful.”
The tweet shocked many and caught several anti-Rwanda social media activists in Uganda by surprise.
For the last four years, Uganda has been accusing Rwanda of sponsoring terror on its soil while Rwanda accuses Uganda of plotting to overthrow Kagame by sponsoring an armed group, Rwanda National Congress, believed to be commanded by Kagame’s former head of the army Gen Kayumba Nyamwasa who has survived two assassination attempts in the recent past. The accusations and counter accusations resulted in Rwanda closing its common border with Uganda. But the two countries maintained full diplomatic ties at embassy level.
The Shuttle Diplomacy
With tensions still raring their ugly heads, last week, the Permanent Ambassador to the United Nations and also a Special Envoy in President Museveni’s office, Amb. Adonia Ayebare flew to Kigali to deliver a special message from the Ugandan leader to Kagame.
Both sides were non-committal regarding its contents, leaving speculators to predict a start of a rapprochement between the two countries soon.
TOP INTELLIGENCE unearths the dynamics that have informed this historic trip!
Informed sources tell us that while high on the agenda is restoration of bilateral relations between the two countries which collapsed four years ago and resulted in Rwanda closing its common border with Uganda, the visit is a decisive moment for the young and fast rising Ugandan general as he seeks to assert himself as the heir apparent to the Ugandan political throne.
There is high speculation that President Museveni might not seek another term and party officials as well as mobilisers are busy selling Muhoozi as the next likely successor because of his generational bridge endowment.
Therefore, in donning a business suit on such a high profile mission, signals a man starting to get used to diplomatic maneuvers ahead of time. It also prepares him in great stead for the high table only occupied by the regional kingpins such as Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyata, South Sudan’s Gen Salva Kiir, DRC’s Felix Tshisekedi, Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu Hassan, and Burundi’s Évariste Ndayishimiye.
Although President Museveni has denied grooming his son to succeed him, the signs look to be getting clearer every day that passes.
For instance, hordes of youths and social media activities have made it a daily activity to sell his name in what they have dubbed ‘Muhoozi Project’ and nobody in the high echelons of the ruling party has stopped or condemned them. Also, Muhoozi who is a serving army officer and therefore barred from discussing political controversy, has not stopped them and is not shy from commenting on controversial issues via his social media account on Twitter, unlike other army offers who are usually silent.
A Ugandan politics watcher concludes that this is signal enough that the young general is testing the waters. Some have predicted that he might be planning an early retirement from the army in 2023 to join full scale politics ahead of the polls in 2026.
Already, calls by party functionaries to review the constitution with Uganda changing from a presidential system to a parliamentary one where the party with the majority MPs elect the next president, are in high gear. The ruling party, the National Resistance Movement (NRM), currently enjoys close to 90% of parliamentary dominance and there is no need to doubt whether it will still command that majority even in the post 2026 period.
Although the move seems to have subsided in the past few days, with a few party leaders dismissing it but other senior ones like Government Chief Whip Thomas Tayebwa supporting it, quiet mobilization ongoing.
In fact, the country’s national newspaper, New Vision, has alerted its readers of an upcoming long interview with the president in their Sunday edition in which he will talk about it. It is predicted he might either endorse it alongside a raft of other suggestions for a constitutional review in an omnibus bill that will be presented in parliament, or dismiss it in a clever way.
A Muhoozi Presidency?
In the recent past, Gen Muhoozi has been conducting tours in what Africa Intelligence,an influential news website that carries intelligence news from Africa calls ‘Induction Tours to regional leaders.’
Late September last year, Muhoozi made such tours to two countries. Somalia, where Uganda has more than 6000 troops and Kenya which is a strong economic and strategic partner of Uganda. In both trips, Muhoozi met the two countries’ presidents, something none of the people at his rank of senior presidential advisor have done.
Reported Africa Intelligence on October 19, 2021 following his visit to President Kenyatta of Kenya:
“Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, is planning a regional induction tour. Ugandan General Muhoozi Kainerugaba is keen to meet all the region’s influential politicians in a bid to secure their support for the 2026 presidential election.”
Thus, when Muhoozi arrived in Kigali this morning, informed sources confirmed the Africa Intelligence observation and added that the young general is keen on seeing the Uganda-Rwanda problem solved and if he alone can deliver peace between the two countries, “that will have been clear shot that will boost confidence amongst his supporters as well as project him as a tactical and strategic leader in waiting, in a region where his father has been a security kingpin,” observed one analyst who follows Uganda and Rwanda issues.
“It is only a matter of time that we will see him pay similar tours to DRC, Burundi, South Sudan and Tanzania,” added the analyst.
The Agenda:
Ugandan media reveal that Muhoozi and Kagame will during the meeting consider plans to appoint focal persons to take the lead in negotiations to resolve outstanding challenges, reports ChimpReports a Uganda current affairs website with a keen eye on the region.
Apart from cultural ties between Uganda and Rwanda, Kagame fought side by side with President Museveni during the NRA war that toppled Milton Obote. Kagame was among the 27 fighters who attacked Kabamba barracks in 1981.
Kagame later served as a senior Ugandan officer in the army’s Directorate of Military Intelligence. Kagame joined the RPF, taking control of the group when previous leader Fred Rwigyema died on the second day of the 1990 invasion. ChimpReports on Friday broke news that President Museveni was sending one of Uganda’s most powerful officials to Rwanda.
Museveni is eager for a resolution to the longstanding dispute with Rwanda, seeing it as a signature element of his legacy and a potential boost to bilateral relations, regional trade and political stability.
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